(Updates with WTI settlement price in seventh paragraph.)
Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- West Texas Intermediate crude futures may gain next week on optimism that lawmakers will reach an agreement to increase the debt ceiling.
Fourteen of 33 analysts, or 42 percent, forecast crude will advance through Oct. 18. Eleven respondents, or 33 percent, predicted a drop. Eight projected no change. Last week, 60 percent of analysts said there would be a decline.
The White House yesterday supported a short debt-limit increase with no policy conditions attached, signaling potential backing for House Republicans’ plan for a month-long reprieve from a default. The plan, proposed by House Speaker John Boehner, would push the lapse of U.S. borrowing authority to Nov. 22 from Oct. 17.
“The market is optimistic that they’ll reach a short-term deal and it may offer a little bit of a support going into next week,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “The fundamentals are heavy, but we should eke out a gain next week.”
U.S. crude supplies rose 6.81 million barrels last week, the biggest gain in a year, the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said in a report Oct. 9. They reached a three-month high of 370.5 million barrels.
The U.S. is the world’s largest oil user, accounting for 21 percent of global consumption last year, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review of World Energy.
Crude futures for November delivery fell $1.82, or 1.8 percent, to $102.02 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures have advanced 11 percent this year.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
14 8 11
--With assistance from Grant Smith in London, Tsuyoshi Inajima in Tokyo, Winnie Zhu, Ann Koh, Ramsey Al-Rikabi, Pratish Narayanan and Yee Kai Pin in Singapore. Editors: Margot Habiby, Charlotte Porter