(Updates prices in seventh paragraph.)
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- West Texas Intermediate crude will probably decline next week amid ample U.S. inventories and rising production, according to a Bloomberg survey.
Fifteen of 25 analysts, or 60 percent, forecast crude will decrease through Dec. 13. Six respondents, or 24 percent, projected prices will rise and four said prices will be little changed. Last week, 44 percent of analysts projected a slip.
U.S. crude supplies dropped for the first time in 11 weeks an Energy Information Administration report on Dec. 4 showed. Inventories were 3.8 percent higher than a year earlier last week. Crude output rose to 8.02 million barrels a day in the week ended Nov. 22, the most since 1989. Prices climbed this week on TransCanada Corp. plans to start part of its Keystone XL pipeline to the Gulf Coast from Cushing, Oklahoma.
“There is a lot of supply,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “If there’s another draw in stocks this week, we will still be looking at near-record levels for this time of year. WTI is a little overextended after rallying on the Keystone news.”
Crude inventories fell 5.59 million barrels last week, the government report showed. U.S. crude output slipped 0.1 percent to 8.01 million barrels a day last week, according to the EIA. Output has surged this year as the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has unlocked supplies trapped in shale formations.
Calgary-based TransCanada said in a government filing this week that it plans to start deliveries from Jan. 3 to Port Arthur, Texas, via the segment of the Keystone expansion project from Cushing. This will open up new markets for barrels trapped in the central U.S.
Front-month crude futures rose $4.93, or 5.3 percent, this week to $97.65 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Today’s settlement was the highest since Oct. 29. Prices are up 6.3 percent this year.
The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.
Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:
RISE NEUTRAL FALL
6 4 15
--With assistance from Sherry Su in London, Yee Kai Pin and Winnie Zhu in Singapore, Ben Sharples in Melbourne, Tsuyoshi Inajima in Tokyo and Sarah Chen in Beijing. Editors: Margot Habiby, Richard Stubbe