World Wheat Production Outlook Raised by IGC on Canada and China

Jan 30, 2014 11:30 am ET

Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- World wheat production will rise 7.9 percent this season, more than expected a month ago on bigger crops in Canada, China and Australia, the International Grains Council said.

Farmers across the world will reap 707 million metric tons of wheat in 2013-14 from 655.2 million tons last season, the London-based IGC said in an e-mailed report today, lifting its outlook by 8.6 million tons from November.

Wheat futures in Chicago, the global benchmark, fell 22 percent last year, the most since 2008, on an outlook for bigger crops in Russia and the European Union following dry conditions in 2012.

“While strong export demand has been supportive at times, wheat prices have been pressured by heavy global supplies,” the IGC wrote. “As a result of exceptional yields, Canada’s grains harvest estimate has been raised.”

The wheat area harvested in 2014-15 is predicted to rise 2 percent, while production is expected to fall to 697 million tons on a return to average yields, the council said. That’s down from last month’s outlook for a 2014-15 harvest of 699 million tons.

The estimate for Canada’s 2013-14 wheat crop was raised to 37.5 million tons from 33 million tons, China’s production was revised up by 2 million tons to 122 million tons and Australia is expected to reap 26.2 million tons of wheat, compared with 25 million tons in November.

The outlook for wheat exports was raised to a record 147 million tons from 142 million tons on the back of bigger crops, according to the report. That compares with 140 million tons of wheat traded in international markets in 2012-13, the IGC said.

Corn Output

Canada’s grain and oilseed exports are being hampered by “tight logistics,” and inventory levels are predicted to rise “significantly” by the end of the season, the IGC said.

Production of corn, or maize, is expected to climb to 958.6 million tons from 861.1 million tons in 2012-13, up 8.8 million tons from the IGC’s November prediction. The estimate for China’s harvest was raised to 217.7 million tons from 210 million tons in November.

World production of soybeans in 2013-14 may be a record 288 million tons, up from 285 million tons predicted in November, according to the IGC.

--Editors: Sharon Lindores, John Deane