Europe’s Seven Months of Warm Weather Set to Finish in July

Jul 01, 2014 12:04 pm ET

(Updates with rainfall forecast in 11th paragraph.)

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Temperatures in Europe will fall below average this month for the first time since December, according to a survey of weather forecasters.

Four of six meteorologists polled by Bloomberg predict lower-than-normal temperatures for most of July after the region had its warmest spring in 34 years. Scandinavia is forecast to be warmer than usual the next two months, according to MDA Information Systems LLC in Gaithersburg, Maryland.

“We’re expecting a pretty variable start to July with back-and-forth warm and cool events,” Michael Thomas, a meteorologist at Commodity Weather Group LLC in Bethesda, Maryland, said yesterday. Central Europe will be “a battleground for the first half of the month,” while eastern areas and Spain will have a cool start, he said.

Europe’s mildest winter in seven years cut demand for heating, leaving natural gas stores more than half full and prices for the fuel at the lowest since 2010. Power costs also face pressure from sun-power sources in Europe, where solar capacity is expected to more than triple in the next two decades from 2010, according to Citigroup Inc.

Meteorologists at MetraWeather, MDA, Commodity Weather Group and German state forecaster Deutscher Wetterdienst predict cooler-than-normal weather in most of Europe this month. WSI Corp. in Andover, Massachusetts, and MeteoGroup see temperatures above average.

Below Average

Weather conditions will be as much as 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) below average in the U.K. in the seven days to July 13, and as much as 3 degrees below usual in Germany and Italy, Byron Drew, the Reading, England-based lead forecaster at MetraWeather, said in an e-mailed report today. Temperatures in southeast Europe will fall as much as 2 degrees below norm in the week to July 20.

German temperatures are forecast to be 2.3 degrees Celsius below a seasonal norm of 18.7 degrees next week, according to WSI data compiled by Bloomberg using the GFS model. Temperatures in Europe have been above average each month since December, WSI data show.

Gas storage in the EU’s 28 nations was 70 percent full as of June 30, the most since 2011, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe data on Bloomberg. European heating oil inventories are the highest in at least two years, Genscape Inc. data show.

Wind Output

Wind output in Germany, Europe’s biggest renewable energy producer, is expected to be near or below normal for the time of year during July, Metraweather’s Drew said.

German wind production is forecast to peak at 11,529 megawatts on July 9 compared with a maximum of 3,792 megawatts today, according to Bloomberg’s wind model. Daily output has averaged 6,053MW over the past year, European Energy Exchange AG data show.

Rainfall will be below normal for the U.K., Scandinavia and northern Europe in July, according to Stephen Davenport, a senior meteorologist at MeteoGroup, said by e-mail today from London.

Falling sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean will create cool airflows in July, MDA said in an e-mailed report. Temperatures are predicted to remain below normal in August, according to the forecaster.

--With assistance from Julia Mengewein in Frankfurt and Isis Almeida and Rupert Rowling in London.