Soybeans Post Longest Slump in 33 Years on Bumper-Crop Forecast

Jul 10, 2014 4:34 pm ET

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- Soybean futures fell, capping the longest slump in 33 years, as mild temperatures forecast for growing regions bolster the outlook a projected record-high crop in the U.S., the world’s top grower.

Cool weather forecast for the Midwest will prevent heat stress on plants over the next 10 days, according to MDA Weather Services in Gaithersburg, Maryland. U.S. output probably will climb 15 percent to an all-time high this year after farmers told the government in June they planted the most acres ever, according to a survey by Bloomberg News.

Soybean and corn prices have tumbled since May to the lowest since 2010 on favorable weather and government data showing larger-than-expected stockpiles. Bigger crops are helping to keep a lid on world food inflation, with the United Nations reporting a third monthly drop in prices in June. The U.S. Department of Agriculture tomorrow may peg global oilseed inventories at a record high, the Bloomberg survey showed.

“You’re seeing a bigger crop coming out of South America and a big crop out of the U.S. now, and export sales for new crops have been a little slower than what people would like to see,” Brandon Marshall, a market analyst at Northstar Commodity Investment Co. in Minneapolis, said in a telephone interview. “So there’s building supply, and demand isn’t greater than last year at this point.”

Soybean futures for November delivery declined 1 percent to close at $10.93 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price dropped for the ninth straight session, the longest slump since June 1981. The oilseed touched $10.9225, the lowest for a most-active contract Oct. 8, 2010.

The USDA may raise its forecast for domestic production to 3.789 billion bushels from 3.635 billion estimated last month, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Corn Falls

Corn futures for December delivery fell 1.3 percent to $3.9275 a bushel. Earlier, the price touched $3.915, the lowest since July 29, 2010. The grain dropped for the eighth straight session, the longest slump since July 1, 2013.

About 75 percent of the U.S. crop was rated in good to excellent condition as of July 6, government data show.

“It’s endless cool, wet conditions that couldn’t be better for the hardy crops,” Tim Hannagan, a grain broker at Walsh Trading in Chicago, said in a telephone interview. “And corn is in its key yield-development time.”

U.S. growers expect to gather a record crop that may boost global stockpiles to 184.47 million metric tons, the most since 2000, the Bloomberg survey showed. That exceeded the government’s June forecast of 182.65 million.

Wheat futures for September delivery fell 0.5 percent to $5.485 a bushel. Earlier, the price touched $5.4625, the lowest since July 14, 2010.