Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- World exports of rapeseed are forecast to slide in the year through June 2015 on reduced crops in Canada, Ukraine and Australia as well as a bigger harvest in Europe, industry researcher Oil World said.
Global shipments may fall to 13.6 million to 13.9 million metric tons in 2014-15 from last year’s record 15.2 million tons, Hamburg-based Oil World wrote in an e-mailed report. That would still be the second-highest export level on record, it said.
Rapeseed futures traded in Paris dropped 14 percent in the past 12 months amid an outlook for rising production in Germany and France, with the November delivery contract closing at 321.50 euros ($429.22) a ton yesterday. Rapeseed is the second- most consumed oilseed after soybeans.
“Most of the adjustment on the import side is likely to occur in the European Union, where we now consider it likely that imports will decline to a multi-year low,” Oil World said.
Farmers in the 28-member EU are forecast to harvest 23.5 million tons of rapeseed, up by 2.3 million tons from a year earlier and 400,000 tons more than a previous forecast, Oil World said. That will cut imports by the bloc to 2.3 million tons from 3.8 million tons, according to the researcher.
Oil World said it raised production estimates for France and the Czech Republic, as well as the U.K. and Hungary. French farmers harvested an estimated 5.53 million tons of rapeseed this year from 4.37 million tons in 2013, the country’s Agriculture Ministry said last week.
U.S. import needs are seen falling on a bigger domestic crop, while crushers in Pakistan, the United Arab Emirates and probably Japan will lift imports, the report showed. China will be “the major swing factor to watch,” it said.
Canadian exports of canola, a variety of rapeseed, are predicted to decline in the year through July 2015 from last year’s record, dropping to 7.8 million tons from last year’s record 9.27 million tons, according to Oil World.
Canada’s “unusually large” canola exports and crushing in the March-July period reduced the country’s stockpiles more rapidly than expected to about 2.05 million tons, the researcher said.
Production prospects have deteriorated due to lack of moisture in Alberta and Manitoba, while growing conditions are favorable in Saskatchewan, Oil World said. Crop development is lagging, raising the risk of frost damage by the end of August or in early September.
Oil World predicted the Canadian canola crop will fall to 14.7 million tons from about 18 million tons.