Europe Set for Warm September After Coolest August Since ’06

Sep 01, 2014 10:20 am ET

(Updates with heating oil levels in 11th paragraph.)

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Temperatures in Europe are forecast to be warmer than average this month after the coolest August in eight years, when Hurricane Bertha brought cold air.

Five of seven meteorologists surveyed by Bloomberg predict above-normal temperatures for most of Europe. High pressure is forecast to build in the region’s west from early September, leading to warmer conditions, MetraWeather says.

“September is always a tricky month as we transition from summer to fall, with a lot of pattern variability possible,” Mike Thomas, a meteorologist at Bethesda, Maryland-based Commodity Weather Group LLC, said by e-mail Aug. 28. “We generally favor a warm September.”

September is the last month before the official start of the winter heating season, when demand for power and natural gas usually rises. Electricity consumption in Europe is set to decline 2.9 percent in 2014 because last winter was the region’s mildest in seven years and economies are in a slowdown, according to Societe Generale SA.

Temperatures are forecast to rise as much as 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above average through Sept. 7 in the U.K., Germany, France and Spain, while Italy will be as much as 3 degrees below average, Byron Drew, the Reading, England-based lead meteorologist at MetraWeather, said Aug. 29 in an e-mailed report. The U.K., France and the Iberian region will be as much as 1 degree above normal in the seven days through Sept. 14, he said.

Nordic Area

Temperatures in northwest Europe including the U.K. are forecast to exceed the seasonal norm of 15.9 degrees by 1.6 degrees next week, according to WSI Corp. data on Bloomberg using the GFS model. The Nordic region will be 0.6 degrees above the 13-degree seasonal norm, the data show.

October-delivery power in France climbed for a third day, adding 0.3 percent to 44.50 euros ($58.44) a megawatt-hour at 3:52 p.m. Paris time, according to broker data compiled by Bloomberg. German power slipped 0.1 percent to 36.35 euros, while the equivalent Nordic contract climbed as much as 2.4 percent to a record 34.80 euros on Nasdaq OMX Group’s commodities exchange in Oslo.

The euro area’s recovery unexpectedly stalled in the second quarter as its three biggest economies failed to grow, European Union statistics showed last month. Manufacturing activity in the region slowed in August, according to a Markit Economics measure released Aug. 21. Power demand in Germany, the largest euro-area economy, dropped from a year earlier in each of 2014’s first six months, the BDEW energy lobby in Berlin said Aug. 20.

Eighth Month

Parts of central Europe were as much as 5 degrees below normal in August, making it the coolest eighth month since 2006, Michael de Villiers, senior meteorologist at WSI, said Aug. 28 by e-mail from Birmingham, England.

Germany, Europe’s biggest power market, was 0.5 degree below a seasonal norm of 16.4 degrees in August, halting a 14- month streak of warmer-than-average weather, Andreas Friedrich, meteorologist at German state forecaster Deutscher Wetterdienst, said Aug. 28 by phone from Offenbach, Germany.

Inventories of heating oil in private houses in Germany, Europe’s largest market for the fuel, are at their highest for this time of year since at least 2011, according to data from research company Ipsos Loyalty GmbH.

Meteorologists at MetraWeather, DWD, the U.K.’s Met Office, Commodity Weather Group and WSI predict warmer-than-normal weather in most of Europe this month. Temperatures will be below average, according to MDA Weather Services, while MeteoGroup sees them in line with normal levels.

Solar Output

Solar output in Germany is forecast to peak at 20 gigawatts on Sept. 5, Andreas Gassner at MeteoGroup Schweiz AG said Aug. 28 by e-mail from Appenzell, Switzerland. That compares with a record 24.2 gigawatts on June 6, according to data from European Energy Exchange AG.

Wind generation will be lower than normal in Germany throughout September, DWD said Aug. 29 in an e-mailed report. Production from renewable sources declined 1 percent in July, according to BDEW.

MDA forecasts a warmer-than-normal October for the U.K. and Scandinavia, while WSI sees above-average temperatures for most of Europe lasting through November.

--With assistance from Isis Almeida and Rupert Rowling in London and Julia Mengewein in Frankfurt.